Sources — Aleatoric Uncertainty
Primary references supporting the development of aleatoric uncertainty as inherent variability, probabilistic variation, repeated realization, and uncertainty representation.
Natural Variability
Risk Analysis and Uncertainty in Flood Damage Reduction Studies (2000)
https://www.nationalacademies.org/read/9971/chapter/5
Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners — Second Edition (2011)
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20120001369.pdf
Probabilistic Representation
Representation of Analysis Results Involving Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty (2010)
https://www.sandia.gov/research/publications/details/representation-of-analysis-results-involving-aleatory-and-epistemic-uncerta-2010-08-01/
Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Computing (2012)
https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/itl/math/WoCo10-Conference-Book-2.pdf
System Risk and Variability
Evaluation of the Transport Airplane Risk Assessment Methodology (2022)
https://www.nationalacademies.org/read/26519/chapter/6
Structural Interpretation
The source lineage develops aleatoric uncertainty through natural variability, stochastic behavior, probabilistic risk representation, and repeated system realizations.
Across these contexts, aleatoric uncertainty is associated with variation attributed to the represented process rather than uncertainty attributed to incomplete knowledge about fixed but poorly known quantities.
Probability distributions and related stochastic representations describe the possible realizations of that variability; the representation is distinct from the underlying variability itself.
This reference remains limited to the structural characterization of aleatoric uncertainty and does not prescribe estimation algorithms, application-specific models, or operational decision procedures.